To Trade or Not To Trade: Joe Blanton

JOE BLANTON:
STATS:
2008- 3-10 4.81 ERA 103 IP 118H 47 SO/ 28BB
CAREER- 45-44 4.20 ERA 736.2IP 783H 416SO/ 195BB

Simply put- Blanton's stats as well as his peripherals are not very attractive. However, his value as an innings eater stems far beyond what the numbers indicate. The fact remains that he gives his team a chance to win every time he steps on the mound and is a lock to go at least 6 innings. The problem is he has been subject to some of the poorest run support of any starting pitcher in the major leagues. This has no doubt caused him to press as of late, resulting in some bad outings which have subsequently shot up his ERA from the 3.80 range to 4.81. Despite his last 3 outings, he has proven to be a steady #3 pitcher on a surprising playoff team.

In Michael Urban's latest mailbag on the A's Website, about a week ago, he said he believe's this is finally the summer that Joe Blanton gets traded. He also states that scouts who he has talked to are still very high on Blanton and believe that "he would be a 20 game winner if he were on the red sox or the yankees" who would give him more run support. That's a pretty bold statement, especially considering he is 3-10. I think he would be capable of winning 20 games on a team like the red sox or yankees. However, I would be more comfortable to just saying he would be a lock to win 15+ games on any team (phillies, sox, cubs, yanks) who have a consistantly potent offense. With that said, in my opinion, Blanton could be a great pitcher for the right team- but just an average pitcher for the wrong team. Lets examine some possible trade destinations:

BOSTON RED SOX:
CURRENT STAFF- Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Masterson, Dice-K DL, Colon DL, Buckholtz.
OUTLOOK- While this would be a good landing spot for Blanton, the Red Sox don't have much need for his services. If the Sox make a play on a pitcher it will be for an Ace. If they do decide to give up quality prospects in a trade, it will likely be for a bat to fill the void left by the Ortiz injury.
PROJECTED PACKAGE: Jeb Lowrie SS, Michael Bowden SP
- Beane has always had a high asking price for Blanton and, despite his stuggles as of late, it is unlikely he has budged off it much given the fact that the A's are in contention for a playoff spot. Regardless of what Beane might ask for, I think this would be a reasonable asking price. It might seem a little steep given Blanton's 2008 numbers. However, Joe Blanton has a strong track record, and this keeps in line with Billy's philosophy which is "we would love to keep him for our playoff run but if you make a strong enough offer id be willing to listen".
PROBABILITY OF TRADE: highly unlikely given the Red Sox needs. I do like the potential prospects the Red Sox could offer though.


NEW YORK YANKEES:
CURRENT STAFF- Mike Mussina, Joba Chamberlain, Andy Pettitte, C. Wang DL, Rasner, Kennedy, Hughes
OUTLOOK- Another good landing spot. The Yankees have major problems with there rotation and will need to make a trade for a quality starting pitcher to have any chance of making the playoffs. Their are other options out their in the trade market who the Yankees would explore before Blanton i.e. Sabathia & Bedard. However, an asking price for both those pitchers would start with phil hughes.
PROJECTED PACKAGE: Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Ross Olhendorf
- In my opinion, Austin Jackson is the best prospect we could ask for considering his considerable talent. Packaging a reliever, such as Alan Embree, with Blanton would help to strengthen a potential package. However, I just don't like the prospects the Yankees would have to offer the A's b/c the only premium players they have to offer are pitching, 1b, and OF- and those are already major strengths in the A's farm system.
PROBABILITY OF TRADE: Moderate b/c of the Yankees strong need for quality pitching. However, I don't see Beane and the Yankees coming to a reasonable deal.


CHICAGO CUBS:
CURRENT STAFF- Zambrano DL, Dempster, Marquis, Lilly, Gallagher
OUTLOOK- The injury to Zambrano could make this a much more important need. This could be a decent landing spot for Blanton if the Cubs can't offer a good enough package for Sabathia and are willing to give up Blanton for Vitters. If Vitters is not included the only other somewhat enticing package could be Sean Gallagher and Ronny Cedeno and I don't see that being enough to convince Beane to trade Blanton. The A's are going to be looking for their thirdbasemen of the future, and the timetable of Vitters to the majors could align perfectly with the time Eric Chavez' contract expires.... That is of course assuming Vitters doesn't play his way off thirdbase- which is a decent possibility.
PROJECTED PACKAGE: Josh Vitters, Ronny Cedeno or Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, Jose Ceda
Probability of Trade: I would say not good. Giving up Vitters would represent going all in for this year and I don't see them doing that to only get Blanton. I think the only way you see Vitters moving is for Sabathia.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:
CURRENT STAFF- Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton
OUTLOOK- Blanton recently shut down the phillies to the tune of 7ip 1er 5so's- outdueling Jamie Moyer who also had a nice game striking out 9 through six while giving up 3 runs. This might be the kind of performance that peaks the phillies interest on Blanton. Their is no denying that the phillies need another quality starter who can fit in that number 2 spot in their rotation. Blanton might be the perfect remedy as a 2/3 quality innings eater who is always gonna give that great offense of the phillies a good chance to win.
PROJECTED PACKAGE- Adrian Cardenas, Antonio Bastardo, Josh Outman, Jason Donald or Carlos Carrasco, Adrian Cardenas
PROBABILITY OF TRADE- I doubt that the A's would be able to get Adrian Cardenas and Carlos Carrasco in a package but that might be the only package that entices Beane to trade Blanton. Personally I think a package of Cardenas, Bastardo, Outman, and Donald is a package that is exceptable for Blanton. The A's would recieve Cardenas who is arguably the best 2b prospect in the minors and should have the bat to even play 3b- if he has the arm strength to play there. Donald is a quality SS prospect who is currently in AA and would be in line to be our shortstop of the future. Josh Outman is a quality pitching prospect who projects to be a solid back of the rotation starter. Finally, Bastardo is a prospect who is having a nice season and could either be a quality starting pitcher or quality reliever. This is another team I would put in the top 3 of teams most likely to trade for Blanton. However, I could see no deal coming to fruition if Beane insists that Cardenas and Carrasco be included- which he probably will.


ATLANTA BRAVES: C
CURRENT STAFF- Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Campillo, Reyes, Glavine
OUTLOOK- Atlanta needs pitching in the worse way to get back into contention. Otherwise they should just call it quits and get what they can for Texiera before he inevitably signs with the Yankees in 2009. If they decide to shop for a pitcher, they don't have the farm system to comfortably go after Sabathia- unless they gut their system. Blanton represents the second tier pitcher would could help them to achieve their goal of making the playoffs without giving up all their elite prospects, i.e. Jason Heyward. It doesn't mean Beane won't initially ask for Heyward- judging by reports earlier this year, I believe he already did. However, Beane will probably come down a little bit off his demands to make the right deal work.
PROJECTED PACKAGE- Jordan Shafer, Cole Rohrbough, and Brent Lillibridge or Gorkys Hernandez, Tommy Hanson, and Cole Rohrbough
PROBABILITY OF TRADE- Atlanta is another good landing spot for Joe. It will be interesting to see if the A's or anybody else could possible pry Jordan Shafer away from the braves in a trade for a SP in lieu of his 50 game suspension for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. If he is still off limits, they would have to trade Gorkys Hernandez in order to get a deal done. At least one of Tommy Hanson or Rohrbough would have to be included in a deal, and maybe both, to have a deal in place to peak Beane's interest. Lillibridge does not offer much value at the moment, due to a dismal year in AAA. However, if Beane felt he got enough value from the top two prospects, Lillibridge might be a nice throw in to take a flier on in hopes that he turns things around and begins to realize some of his potential- of which he does have a lot.

NEW YORK METS:
CURRENT STAFF- Santana, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, P. Martinez
OUTLOOK- The Mets could get desperate and unload any quality prospects they have left to get a quality pitcher or outfielder. The will not get any quality players back in return unless they decide to give up Fernando Martinez. They definatly had interest in Blanton before they pulled the trigger on Santana and they could revisit those talks come the trade deadline.
PROJECTED PACKAGE- Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz
PROBABILITY OF TRADE- I really don't see this trade happening. The only prospect who could peak Beanes interest is Martinez and he is still very raw and could never develop. The A's are also loaded with Outfield prospects already. The chances for this being a Hudson type deal where their is almost no return would be relatively high. More likely, if F. Martinez is shopped it will be for an outfield bat.



ST LOUIS CARDINALS:
CURRENT STAFF- Kyle Lohse, Adam Wainwright DL, Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper, Joel Pinero, Mitchell Boggs
OUTLOOK- Despite current injuries to Wainwright and Carpenter- the cards pitching staff, like their entire team, has been surprisingly effective on route to a possible playoff berth. The cards are unlikely to go after one of the big pitchers, i.e. Sabathia, and elect instead to keep their top prospect Rasmus. However, it is clear that the cards will need to bolster their rotation in order to sustain a push for the playoffs. Trading for Blanton might be just the pitcher they are looking for. In my projected package, I believe it would take a package similar to Jamie Garcia, Anthony Reyes, and Bryan Anderson. I believe this package is a fair package for Blanton and one that the Cardinals would be willing to give in order to get a pitcher of Blanton's caliber. Jamie Garcia would be the prospect the Cards would have the hardest time giving up as he is currently doing nothing at AA to diminish his projection as a number 3 starter. However, you've got to give up something good to get something and I think they can certainly live with giving up Garcia to get a consistant 2/3 for a playoff push. The next player, Anthony Reyes, would be probably a given to be a thrown in as he has good potential and is still young, I believe 24, but is in desperate need of a change of scenery. The third, Bryan Anderson, is a good catching prospect who is a good bet to hit for a high average when he reaches the majors. However, he is blocked for the next 3 years by Yadier Molina, and he might not ever develop any power. The reason the A's would ask for Anderson, despite the fact that they already have Suzuki, is b/c he will be a good future trade chip as almost every team is looking for a young catcher who can hit. Another prospect they might ask for in place of one of those three is SS prospect Peter Kozma.
PROJECTED PACKAGE- Jamie Garcia, Anthony Reyes, Bryan Anderson
PROBABILITY OF TRADE- If Beane decides to trade Blanton I would say this is easily a top 3 landing spot for him. As well, this is a good match b/c the cards have the prospects, other than Rasmus, to satisfy Beanes demands.


MILWAKEE BREWERS:
CURRENT STAFF-Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Seth Mclung
OUTLOOK- If the Brewers are serious about making a playoff push, they are going to need to trade for another starter, and the certainly have the prospects to pull a major deal off. It has been mentioned that they might be the suprise front-runners to land CC Sabathia. However, making a deal for Sabathia would probably require at least 2 of LaPorta, Gamel, and Jeffries plus others- maybe even all three. Blanton would probably require only 1 of the three plus others.
PROJECTED PACKAGE- Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar or Matt LaPorta and Jeremy Jeffries
PROBABILITY OF TRADE- I would say their is a decent chance of this being a possible landing spot for Blanton. Any deal involving Blanton would require at least Gamel or LaPorta as the center piece. I would imagine SS prospect Escobar or Jefferies would have to be a secondary prospect thrown in the deal to get Beane interested. Then a standard third prospect, probably a pitching prospect, would round out the package. My personal preference would probably be a package with LaPorta as the centerpiece. If it was a forgone conclusion that Gamel will stick at thirdbase- my preference would clearly be him as someone who could hit 40 doubles and 20 hrs at 3b. However, most reports indicate that he is even worse at 3b than Ryan Braun who the brewers moved off the bag and I would cleary prefer LaPorta's over Gamel's.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS:
CURRENT STAFF- Penny DL, Billingsley, Kiroda DL, Kershaw, Lowe, Stults, Chan-Ho Park
OUTLOOK- The dodgers have had some injuries to their staff and need to bring in another quality pitcher if they want to have a shot a sustaining a playoff push in a winnable division. However, Dodgers GM Ned Colleti has shown a strong resistance to giving up future prospects at the trade deadline. Beane and Colleti have kicked the tires a couple of times on trading Blanton to the Dodgers. However, the reports have seemed to indicate they have never been close to making a deal. In spite of that their appears to be a couple of blocked prospects that could make this deal work.
PROJECTED PACKAGE- Andy LaRoche, James McDonald, and Ivan DeJesus or Ching-Lung Hu, James McDonald, and Jon Meloan
PROBABILITY OF TRADE-Colletti has resisted the urge to trade for Blanton in the past so speculating a possible trade to the dodgers might be just beating a dead horse. However, the fact remains that Blanton could help to push the dodgers over the top in a winnable division. He also would not have to give up some of his young established major league players, i.e. Kemp, Loney, Ethier, and could would only have to part with good prospects who are somewhat blocked. For some odd reason, the dodgers have shown a strong resistance to player LaRoche and with the emergance of DeWitt, LaRoche is rapidly being factored out of the dodgers future plans. He would be the center of the deal. James McDonald is a pitcher who projects as a future mid-rotation starter. He is a good prospect who the dodgers would probably rather not give up. However, they have a good assortment of young pitching and losing McDonald would not change that. Ivan DeJesus, the third prospect, is a solid SS prospect. However, Chin-Lung Hu is the dodgers shortstop of the future and even he is somewhat blocked by their current starting shortstop, Furcal. The dodgers would not agonize over giving him up.